- OPEC+ fell a whopping 3.6 million bpd below its oil production target in August, widening from 2.9 million bpd in July.
- While OPEC members were 1.399 million bpd behind their quota, non-OPEC producers were more than two million bpd below their quota.
- Russia and Nigeria were the two biggest laggards, and OPEC+ is likely to fall further behind its production quotas in September.
OPEC+ remains well short of its common oil production target, with the gap between quota and actual production widening to a massive 3.58 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, according to OPEC delegates and data seen by the Argus.
OPEC’s 10 pact-bound members saw their collective oil output fall 1.399 million bpd below quota, while non-OPEC producers in the deal fell more than 2 million bpd below quota, to 2.185 million bpd, according to OPEC data seen by the Argus.
In July, OPEC+ was already 2.9 million bpd below its target.
In August, the two biggest laggards in production quotas were non-OPEC Russia and OPEC Nigeria, the data showed. Russia’s oil production was 1.25 million bpd below its target, while Nigeria fell 700,000 bpd short of its quota.
Russian production is constrained by Western sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while Nigeria has struggled for years with a lack of investment and oil theft.
Nigeria’s oil exports fell below 1 million bpd in August, their lowest level on record, oil export analyst Petro-Logistics said earlier this month. The sector has been plagued in recent years by persistent underinvestment in Nigeria’s oil industry and the ongoing problem of oil theft from pipelines. Oil majors are not investing in Nigerian supplies, and many foreign firms have either sold assets or signaled they will continue to sell off Nigeria’s oil industry.
OPEC+ was widely expected to remain well below its production targets for July and August after the group decided to accelerate the tapering of cuts and allow them to be fully relaxed by the end of August.
September’s weak performance will be even higher as the group raised its joint target for the month of September by 100,000 bpd. That increase will be reversed in October, OPEC+ decided at a meeting earlier this month.
Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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